Senator Joe Manchin is starting to feel the heat in West Virginia. His lead over Patrick Morrissey has shrunk to just 4 points. But what should be even more disconcerting for Manchin is that 60 percent of Republicans supporting him are less likely to do so if he opposes Judge Brett Kavanaugh’s confirmation. View our polling memo HERE.
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SLF internal poll claims Manchin’s lead is dipping
By James Arkin
A poll conducted for Senate Leadership Fund, the top Republican Senate super PAC, shows Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin‘s lead at just 4 percentage points in West Virginia.
The poll obtained by POLITICO shows Manchin getting 47 percent of the vote to West Virginia Attorney General Patrick Morrisey’s 43 percent among likely voters. Another 5 percent of voters were undecided and 5 percent were supporting a Libertarian candidate.
It’s a sharply different portrait of the West Virginia race than the one painted by Manchin’s campaign in its own polling released just a day earlier — though the two polls showed roughly the same share of voters supporting Manchin. The Democratic poll showed Manchin leading Morrisey by double digits, 48 percent to 36 percent, with only 4 percent supporting the Libertarian candidate. It was conducted Sept. 19-23 by Democratic firm Global Strategy Group.
Senate Leadership Fund’s survey showed President Donald Trump with a 58 percent approval rating in West Virginia. It also found that 19 percent of Trump supporters back Manchin for reelection, but most of those voters said they would be less likely to support Manchin if he opposes Judge Brett Kavanaugh, Trump’s nominee to the Supreme Court.
The poll was conducted by The Tarrance Group, which interviewed 612 likely voters from Sept. 23-25 with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points.